Insights

From Tehran to Kericho: What the US-Israel War on Iran Means for Kenya’s Tea Industry

The US-Israel military offensive on Iran that began in early March 2026 has triggered a geopolitical and economic shock whose effects extend far beyond the Persian Gulf — reaching directly into Kenya’s tea-growing highlands and the Mombasa auction floor. Kenya earned Ksh 181.69 billion in 2024 from tea exports, with over 60% of that revenue flowing through markets now directly threatened by the conflict. This analysis applies the Gravity Model of Trade, Supply Chain Shock Theory, Exchange Rate Pass-Through economics, and Geopolitical Risk Premium analysis to map the full transmission of this war into Kenya’s tea sector — and prescribes the structural response that policymakers, the Tea Board of Kenya, KTDA, and farmers themselves can no longer afford to defer.

March 10, 2026 Read More →

Tea Bonus Rates Out Next Week: Why This Year’s Tea Bonus Won’t Match Last Year

Kenya’s tea factories will declare annual bonus rates next week, but industry signals show farmers should brace for slightly reduced payouts. A convergence of climate shocks, currency volatility, delayed farm inputs, and global price pressures has undermined profitability, threatening the livelihoods of over 680,000 smallholder farmers.

September 18, 2025 Read More →

February 2025 Tea Sector Report: Weather Strain, Strong Auction Demand, and New Export Markets

The Tea Board of Kenya (TBK) has released its performance report for February 2025, shedding light on key shifts in the tea industry. From sharp declines in production due to severe weather, to improved auction performance and expansion into emerging export markets, the report reveals a sector under pressure but adapting with resilience.

July 7, 2025 Read More →