Welcome to POINTBLANK ANALYTICS

Insightful and expert commentary on Economic Policy, Kenya's Tea Sector, and global market trends – authored by an economist, statistician, and tea industry leader, Paul Machira Muturi.

Economic Policy

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The Sovereign Debt Mirage: A Roadmap to Fiscal Sovereignty Beyond IMF Conditionality

Is Kenya's economy stable as official narratives suggest? The numbers tell a story that politics refuses to acknowledge: beneath the veneer of macroeconomic calm lies a debt bubble inflated by creative accounting, an artificially stabilized shilling, and fiscal maneuvers designed to delay rather than resolve our structural crisis.

November 13, 2025 Read More →

The Shilling Stability Paradox: Why Kenya's Tea Exporters Should Mind About IMF Concerns

Nairobi, Kenya — While the International Monetary Fund questions Kenya's unusually stable exchange rate, a deeper economic reality threatens to reshape the profitability landscape for Kenya's crucial tea export industry. What the IMF views as a monetary policy concern could signal an impending currency appreciation that would devastate export competitiveness.

November 7, 2025 Read More →

The President of Fence Sitters: Ndindi Nyoro, Kenya's Brightest Economic Mind

In Kenya's ever-shifting political landscape, where allegiances change faster than Nairobi traffic lights, one figure has mastered the art of being everywhere and nowhere at once. Meet Ndindi Nyoro—the Kiharu MP who has earned himself the unofficial title of "President of Fence Sitters," while simultaneously establishing his reputation as one of Kenya's most brilliant economic minds. His empire spans IT, financial services, and stock brokerage—credentials that positioned him to speak with authority on both policy and practice. Speaking at the CITAM Business Forum Expo in Nyeri on Saturday, August 6th, 2025 themed "Transformed to Transform.", Nyoro delivered what may be the most quotable economic advice of 2025: "Don't struggle to own the whole pond when you can own a piece of the ocean." In that single metaphor, Nyoro captured something profound about economic thinking that has resonated far beyond the conference halls of Nyeri. This isn't just business advice—it's a philosophy that explains why this 39-year-old economist-turned-politician has everyone from government insiders to opposition figures quietly singing his praises.

September 19, 2025 Read More →

Tea Insights

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Tea Bonus Rates Out Next Week: Why This Year’s Tea Bonus Won’t Match Last Year

Kenya’s tea factories will declare annual bonus rates next week, but industry signals show farmers should brace for slightly reduced payouts. A convergence of climate shocks, currency volatility, delayed farm inputs, and global price pressures has undermined profitability, threatening the livelihoods of over 680,000 smallholder farmers.

September 18, 2025 Read More →

February 2025 Tea Sector Report: Weather Strain, Strong Auction Demand, and New Export Markets

The Tea Board of Kenya (TBK) has released its performance report for February 2025, shedding light on key shifts in the tea industry. From sharp declines in production due to severe weather, to improved auction performance and expansion into emerging export markets, the report reveals a sector under pressure but adapting with resilience.

July 7, 2025 Read More →